Opinion: NZ exporters strengthen ties in Asia while navigating geopolitical shifts 

Josh Tan: Conversations around trade and diplomacy at the summit offered "both sobering realities and reasons for optimism." 

As the Asia New Zealand Foundation celebrates its 30th anniversary, it's a moment to reflect on the importance that Asia plays in our export sector.

The continent already accounts for seven of our top 10 trading partners, and we have substantial coverage via various free trade agreements, digital partnerships, supply chain agreements, and economic partnerships. 

At the Foundation’s Asia Summit in October, the conversations around trade and diplomacy were particularly thought-provoking, offering both sobering realities and reasons for optimism. 

At the summit, New Zealand's traditional export-led growth strategy in the current global climate was examined, and two distinct ways of looking at the same issue proffered.

Let’s start with Panel I, which examined the big trends shaping our region and our diplomacy. They were quick to caution anyone planning on export-driven growth, in the face of ongoing global political tensions and economic uncertainty. 

Whether or not you compare 2024 to other moments of volatility throughout recent memory, the world is changing.

Tensions between the US and China have fundamentally altered the dynamics of international trade. Multilateral organisations are increasingly difficult to navigate as countries look inward, prioritising their own economic security. Instead, many willing nations are turning to bilateral agreements as they attempt to sidestep the issue. 

Some have found success in maintaining a neutral stance – benefiting from their ability to engage with both the US and China without choosing sides. But the balancing act is becoming more precarious as geopolitical pressures mount.

Supposed “one-in-a-100-years” shocks – like pandemics, supply chain disruptions, climate change events, or financial instability – seem to be more frequent and impactful as New Zealand continues to try to look outward, making long-term planning even more challenging. 

The next generation has a different take on our exporting future.

Although geopolitical concerns dominated much of the morning’s discussion, a panel featuring younger business leaders and entrepreneurs revealed that challenges discussed in the academic and policy arena are a far cry from the conversations they’re having on the ground.  

These exporters are focused on building relationships and finding opportunities in Asia – despite the global uncertainties.

While they acknowledge the geopolitical risks, they’re getting on with the job anyway (something which is consistent with the latest results from New Zealand's Export Barometer, which showed that while geopolitical risks are present, they are not ranked among the top barriers for exporters). 

Panel IV was made up of young leaders and entrepreneurs the Foundation has supported to develop their connections to Asia

The glass-half-full approach is a sentiment that is not to be dismissed.

While global politics and economic shifts cannot be ignored, the resilience and adaptability of New Zealand’s exporters offer us a reason to be hopeful. As they engage directly with markets in Asia, they are creating new opportunities and maintaining the relationships that underpin our export success. 

As Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade officials have pointed out to exporters multiple times, the “golden weather” of unimpeded trade growth may in fact be over. But that doesn’t have to mean we’re headed for doom and gloom.

Our trade relationships are deeply rooted, and our reputation as a reliable trading partner remains strong. These factors will be crucial as we navigate the geopolitical challenges ahead. 

But are geopolitical concerns only for academics and governments?

Exporters and businesses must understand the broader global landscape in which they operate.

Political tensions, trade wars, and supply chain risks are real and can have serious implications. Yet for many in the export community, trade is navigating global affairs and forging personal relationships in equal measure. 

Our exports have to go beyond governments signing deals – they’re about the connections between people – exporter and importer, distributor and consumer.

While businesses must be aware of geopolitical risks, they continue to operate based on trust, reputation, and the personal relationships they’ve built with partners in market. That being said, we cannot look to engage and trade if governments create unnecessary barriers and pull up the drawbridge. 

So, who is looking at it the right way: The morning’s academics and policy brains who take a more holistic view of the world, or the new exporters and entrepreneurs bringing fresh ideas and perspectives to the export arena? Perhaps the best approach is to take advice from both.  

New Zealand cannot afford to be complacent. We need to engage widely in terms of trade partners, continue to innovate our offering to the rest of the world, and remain agile in the face of global challenges. However, we should also take heart in the resilience of our exporters and the strength of the relationships we have built across Asia. 

The optimism expressed by our young entrepreneurs and business leaders is a reminder that while geopolitical realities are important, they are not the whole story.

The future of New Zealand’s trade with Asia will depend not only on navigating the complexities of international politics but also on the enduring strength of personal relationships and the entrepreneurial spirit that drives our exporters forward. 

About the author

Josh Tan is the Executive Director of Export New Zealand, the industry association representing New Zealand’s diverse range of exporters, and a division of Business New Zealand. Josh has been a member of the Asia New Zealand Foundation Leadership Network since 2020 and is a member of the Network’s Advisory Board.