NZ’s changing attitudes towards Asian immigration

The vast majority of immigrants from Asia have settled in Auckland

 In 1986, New Zealand’s population was 3.3 million and overwhelmingly Pākehā. In the census for that year, over 82 percent of the population identified as being of European heritage, while less than 10 percent of the total population identified as Māori, and less than three percent identified as having Pasifika heritage.

Those of Chinese or Indian heritage made up a combined one percent of the total population. But the following decades have ushered in a bigger and far more diverse New Zealand. 

By 2013, 14.9 percent of New Zealanders identified as Māori, 11.8 percent as Asian, and 7.4 percent as having Pacific heritage. And our demographics continued to diversify in the following decade.

In the 2023 census, 17.8 percent of the New Zealand population identified as Māori, 17.3 as being of Asian heritage, while 8.9 percent reported having Pacific heritage.

Unsurprisingly, the profile of those arriving in Aotearoa has also changed. Citizens of India, the Philippines, China and Fiji have driven recent net migration gains.  

How have these changes in our population impacted attitudes towards immigration from Asia? To find out, we compared data from 2013 with 2023 below.

On the face of it, there appears to be little change in attitudes between 2013 and 2023. Fifty-two percent of New Zealanders expected immigration from Asia to have a positive impact on New Zealand’s future in 2023, a figure almost unchanged from the 54 percent who expected the same in 2013. But this conceals the significant fall and rise in the years between.

After holding steady in the mid-50s, positive attitudes towards immigration dropped to 48 percent in 2015. While positive sentiment bounced back to 51 percent the following year, it plummeted to 40 percent in 2017 where it continued to hover through to 2020.

By 2021, those who expected positive impacts from Asian immigration were back at 48 percent before peaking at 55 percent in 2022. Negative perceptions have also continued to trend down.

What is behind these fluctuations?

Data from New Zealanders’ Perceptions of Asia and Asian Peoples surveys over this period sheds some insight into what's shaping public perceptions. 

In 2013 when New Zealanders were generally optimistic (54 percent) about the impact of migration from Asia, the Asia-related news story New Zealanders were able to recall most frequently was Fonterra’s botulism scare that led China to temporarily ban all imports of New Zealand milk powder.

While survey respondents also recalled seeing news around the impact of ‘Asian buyers’ on house prices, almost six times as many New Zealanders recalled the botulism story than stories about house prices and ‘foreign buyers’. 

Stories in the media play a big part in how New Zealanders view immigration

Two years later in 2015, when 48 percent of New Zealanders (a six-percentage point drop) reported feeling that Asian migration would have a positive impact on New Zealand’s future, New Zealand’s Asia coverage had become dominated by stories of ‘Asian buyers’ driving the housing crisis, a topic and a narrative that significantly impacted New Zealanders and their direct associations with Asia.

When asked what Asia-related news they were able to recall in the Perceptions of Asia survey for that year, 37 percent named stories about the housing shortage and Asian buyers, followed by stories relating to foreign investment and ownership in New Zealand (nine percent), and China’s stock market crash (eight percent).

Reflective of the prevalence of such stories, recall of Asia-related news spiked in 2015, and over two thirds (67 percent) of those who could recall Asia-related described it as negative in tone.

Stories of Asian investment in New Zealand's housing stock continued to be the most frequently recalled Asia news items into 2016 when the proportion of New Zealanders expecting positive impacts from immigration plummeted another six-percentage points to 40 percent.

The statistic remained the same the following year. While no data on the recall of specific news stories was collected in 2017, the 2017 Perception of Asia report notes that survey fieldwork coincided with the announcement of a ‘foreign speculators house ban’ and an independent stocktake of the housing crisis, as well as media coverage of allegations of Chinese political influence in New Zealand.

Subsequent Perceptions of Asia surveys have not looked at what Asia news stories New Zealanders are able to recall with most frequency. But the data does show that New Zealanders’ ability to recall seeing or hearing any Asia-related news has trended sharply downwards since 2019 (no media recall data is available for 2018 and 2017).

While there are many possible reasons for this (explored here), one likely contributing factor is that the media narrative pinning blame for the housing crisis on Asian buyers and foreign investment shifted following the introduction of the Overseas Investment Amendment Act in 2018 and the suspension of overseas arrivals with COVID-19.

Sentiment towards migrants may have been bolstered by COVID-related worker shortages

By contrast, it is possible that the media focus on the shortage of workers exacerbated by COVID-19 border restrictions may have boosted positive sentiment towards migrants.

More research is needed to test this hypothesis, however if it does prove to be correct it again highlights the limited lens through which migrants are so often viewed: either as a burden on limited housing stock and infrastructure or as cheap workers willing to take on the jobs often seen as underpaid or undesirable.

Such perceptions are reason for concern, not only because they are inherently limited, but also because of the speed with which positive attitudes can turn sour.

While New Zealand has – for the most part – escaped immigration becoming a salient electoral issue, fluctuating attitudes show this can’t be taken for granted.

Attitudes towards immigration, and the countries migrants come from, translate into how migrants are treated. The politicisation of immigration is a trap the New Zealand media and politicians must actively avoid falling in to. 

Who is most positive about the impact of immigration from Asia?

Not all migrants to New Zealand are seen as equal. A 2020 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment report found that while 61 percent of New Zealanders surveyed were positive about migrants from the UK, only 44 percent were positive about migrants from India and China.

Immigration from the UK is still viewed more favourably than immigration from China and India

The most recent Perceptions of Asia survey reveals that people more likely to be optimistic about the impact of immigration from Asia are those who have traveled to Asia, have stronger connections to Asian cultures, and have higher levels of self-assessed Asia knowledge.

For instance, 60 percent of those who know at least a ‘fair amount’ about Asia think immigration will have a positive impact compared to 41 percent of those who rate their Asia knowledge as low.

Similarly, 71 percent of those with strong connections to Asia are positive about immigration versus just 42 percent of those with weaker Asia connections.

It is by no means inevitable that attitudes towards immigration will become increasingly positive over time – in fact Perceptions of Asia data indicates that younger New Zealanders are more uncertain about the impact of Asia immigration than those over 30.

Improving the experiences of New Zealanders of Asian heritage and maintaining social license to support immigration rests on building New Zealanders’ knowledge of Asia and on strengthening New Zealanders’ connectedness to the region in their daily lives. It also stands as a cautionary tale as to how media narratives have a direct impact on how particular groups are perceived and treated, and the importance of responsible reporting. 

This article was written by the Foundation's Manager, Research Programme Alex Smith for Asia in Focus. The Foundation's Asia in Focus initiative provides expert analysis on Asia and New Zealand-Asia relations.