More than just US-China tensions - insights on an evolving S.E Asia

Richard heydarian addressing an audience at an Asia After Five event at the Foundation's Wellington office

Regional politics: US-China and ASEAN

• The geopolitical environment is not just about the US vs China – countries and especially regional middle powers are exercising more strategic agency. The Philippines in particular is looking to rise and to shape the regional environment.

• Many southeast Asian countries are engaging in hedging but in different ways – there are “50 shades of hedging” with countries trying to navigate the US-China relationship in their own ways, based on their own domestic context, interests, and populations.

• The perceived closer alignment with China in Southeast Asia is somewhat misleading. It isn’t possible to criticise China in public without facing consequences, and so countries steer clear of that route, whereas it is possible to publicly criticise and disagree with the US. Because of this, Southeast Asian countries appear less favorable towards the US, when in fact there is still much concern with China – it just isn’t vocalised as much.

• Gaza is playing into China’s hands in many Southeast Asian countries, and especially in Malaysia. It is pushing the public further from the US.

• ASEAN needs to be stronger in enforcing UNCLOS – it is in the interests of all. But it seems to operate more effectively for economic and cultural exchanges than as a security coordinating body. This is why we are seeing a move towards minilateralism to uphold security interests.

Philippines Foreign Policy

• Geography shapes the Philippines outlook on the world and its close security relationship with the US. Taiwan is very close to the Philippines and they know they would be involved in any conflict.

• China has misread the Philippines under Marcos – after a period of neglect under Obama, the US has now realised the value of the Philippines and has rolled out the red carpet, treating the Philippines as an important partner.

• China on the other hand has continued to offer little of substance and hasn’t changed gears – its statecraft is not as sophisticated as many people think. Its mishandling of its relationship with Marcos, who initially spoke warmly of China and visited China with high expectations only to leave empty handed, has played a major role in the deterioration of the bilateral relationship.

• Marcos is being firmer on grey zone tactics in the South China Sea, focussing on outcomes not just on process. If water cannons by China cause a Filipino death, that is a clear red line.

Perceptions of New Zealand

• The geopolitical environment offers new ground for cooperation between small-middle sized countries in the region, and New Zealand and the Philippines are no exception. Richard emphasised that New Zealand can work with the Philippines by supporting international law and UNCLOS in particular – that is what the Philippines is relying on.

• Richard saw particular value in New Zealand, as a country not seen as blindly following the US, speaking up on South China Sea issues. He said that because of New Zealand’s “non-alignment”, its statements carry extra weight and can’t be written off as coming from “Team America”.

• He saw New Zealand as being in the midst of change and engaging in a more sophisticated debate than he thought was the case a few years ago. In this regard, Richard seemed to view New Zealand as having joined the group of small-middle sized countries all trying to navigate – or hedge their way through – the US-China relationship and facing similar challenges to others in the region.

The Foundation's Track II programme supports informal diplomacy with thinktanks in Asia on issues and challenges facing the region.