Balancing power and progress: a tale from Cambodia

Suzannah: "There is a sense here in Cambodia that the people are hungry for change and are going to get on with whatever they can to achieve it."

Situated in a lesser-known part of Southeast Asia is Cambodia. Once the capital of the Khmer empire that ruled most of mainland Southeast Asia, Cambodia is now a country of 17 million people better known for its struggles with corruption, human rights abuses and indebtedness to China. But like all reputations, things can get a little warped from afar.

I am writing this article from Phnom Penh, the capital of Cambodia, where I am leading a track II diplomacy visit to better understand Cambodia and how it is navigating its regional relations, and what a Trump presidency might mean for this often overlooked and not well understood kingdom.

This year also marks 65 years of bilateral relations between New Zealand and Cambodia and so it’s timely for us to take stock and find out a little more about how Cambodians see themselves in the world and what lessons we can draw from each other’s experiences.

Cambodia’s international relations have been hugely influenced by its history and geography, pushed and pulled between major powers and torn apart by the Khmer Rouge in the mid-to-late 1970s, which saw over one and a half million Cambodians killed and thousands of refugees settle around the world, including over 4,500 in New Zealand.

Pol Pot, Cambodia’s Prime Minister at the time, was supported by the Chinese Communist Party under Mao Zedong, and it is China that continues today to be Cambodia’s main provider of aid, military support, grant funding and investment as Cambodia works to rebuild itself and focus on economic growth.

Pol Pot’s gravesite is located on Dangrek Mountain Range in Anlong Veng district, Oddar Meanchey province, Cambodia

We arrived here unsure of the conversations we might be able to have. Now, as we wrap up our visit, we are reflecting on the senior access we got, the warmth with which we were received and the genuine interest many Cambodians expressed in building closer relations.

Cambodia’s senior public servants, business leaders and civil society are keenly aware of the challenges the country faces. They operate in a glass box – watched by the world but inherently vulnerable due to Cambodia’s least-developed status, complex neighbourhood relations and only recently achieved peace.

New Zealand often talks about its relationships with major powers in terms of maturity and being able to agree and disagree while keeping relations on track. For Cambodia, it has not been a matter of preferences and subtleties, but hard calculations and a raw need to secure development support at scale and speed – two things that China is particularly good at, but at a cost.

That cost has included significant pressure to align with China’s positions, including defending China’s treatment of the Uyghurs in Xinjiang and supporting its national security law in Hong Kong, giving China access to strategic assets and accessways, and utilising China-made infrastructure and systems that can compromise Cambodia’s cyber and other security.

Since the election of Hun Manet in 2023, Cambodia has been starting to give signals that it wishes to rebalance and diversify its foreign policy by adopting a more pragmatic issue-by-issue approach and formalising new strategic partnerships with a range of countries such as Australia, Thailand and South Korea. It is a rhetorical shift, but was demonstrated in Cambodia’s preparedness to publicly stand alongside many Western powers in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Traditionally, Cambodia’s poor human rights record and authoritarian style of governance have made it an uneasy partner for democratic countries. For refugees from Cambodia who have experienced firsthand the brutality of authoritarian regimes, the matter is far from hypothetical.

Under a Trump presidency, however, human rights advocacy is likely to take a backseat as the United States shifts to its own brand of pragmatism that focuses less on rights and values and more on transactions that reward or punish countries based on American self-interest.

If the US adopts a more confrontational stance toward China, countries such as Cambodia will feel the heat and will have to work even harder to demonstrate their contribution to American interests if they are to access the country’s support and investment.

China will likely double down on its support for countries such as Cambodia, utilising what it can of its economic power and military might to promote its strategic goals and show that it is an all-weather friend to countries in need and with consistent – although not always mutually reassuring – foreign policy.

Suzannah: "Cambodia’s success in the coming years will depend on its ability to manage these two [China and the US] powerful relationships..."

Cambodia’s success in the coming years will depend on its ability to manage these two powerful relationships without compromising its very real need to graduate from Least Developed Country status.

There are plenty of green shoots for Cambodia to cultivate. During our visit we met numerous senior contacts who are keen to find ways to connect with countries such as New Zealand who can deliver policy solutions for the Cambodian people without triggering major power tensions.

New Zealand’s contribution to Cambodia’s peace process as well as its long-standing contribution to the preservation and protection of its famous world heritage site, Angkor Wat, are recognised by those we meet as successful examples of how our two countries can work together in a way that helps sustain peace and development. They are a good reminder of the lasting impact we can have at a people-to-people level, despite the challenges that often beset government-to-government relations and major power dynamics.

There is a sense here in Cambodia that the people are hungry for change and are going to get on with whatever they can to achieve it. New Zealand should continue to be part of this change. We might not always align with the Cambodian government, but we’ve got warm people-to-people ties built up over many decades from Kiwis doing good work in the region, which open doors for further cooperation and economic development.

This article was first published on the Newsroom website

The Foundation's Asia in Focus initiative publishes expert insights and analysis on issues across Asia, as well as New Zealand’s evolving relationship with the region.