America first policy and India's evolving role in global affairs centre stage at Raisina Dialogue

Admiral Samuel J. Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, speaks at a U.S.-India Strategic Partnership Forum event in New Delhi in March while in India for the Raisina Dialogue

“For the US, the age of multilateralism is over.”

This blunt assessment by Carla Sands of the America First Policy Institute was one of many confronting views shared at India’s premier forum for politics, international relations, and global affairs.

The Raisina Dialogue, held recently in Delhi, provided an excellent opportunity to hear from a diverse range of speakers on the state of the international order, India’s place in the world, and what these shifts could mean for countries like New Zealand as it navigates evolving security debates.

India approaches these discussions with confidence — reflecting its understanding of multipolarity and comfort with the changing global landscape.

As tension between China and the United States rise, India’s emphasis on strategic autonomy borne from the non-alignment movement of the Cold War has come to the fore.

From Southeast Asia and the Middle East to the United States and the broader Global South, it was evident that India is playing an increasingly central role in shaping bilateral and multilateral interactions.

Its much-cited convening power was on full display, and the Asia New Zealand Foundation’s youth delegation heard from leading global policy practitioners, including from the USA, Japan, India, Thailand, and the Philippines, among others. 

Carla Sands: “For the US, the age of multilateralism is over.”

Despite rhetoric from Trump-aligned voices like Ambassador Carla Sands declaring the death of multilateralism, most discussants pointed to the rise of interest-based alignments rather than a wholesale rejection of global cooperation.

What was striking, however, was the degree to which security concerns dominated the discourse.

Former Trump officials made clear that their administration’s approach prioritises “deals” struck on better terms for the US, asserting that past arrangements have exploited American interests, necessitating a recalibration to ensure security, prosperity and freedom. This ‘security-first’ lens is troubling.

The reordering of America’s core interests in response to growing regional geostrategic tension underlines the changes that Sino-U.S. competition has caused. 

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon touched on these shifts in his keynote address, highlighting the move from rules to power as today’s critical driver of foreign policy.

Less clear from the speaker’s comments was what a future order might look like. Moreover, such a wholesale rejection of the post-WWII multilateral architecture is highly concerning for states like New Zealand.

Perhaps India’s complex past — its colonial history, experience with sanctions, and long-standing foreign policy challenges—render the country better equipped than others to navigate the uncertainties ahead.

During their time in Chenai, the delegation visited 'integrated business city' Sri City where they visited, among other businesses and institutions, the E-Pack Durable Air Conditioner factory (pictured)

Conversations with local interlocutors revealed a deep cynicism toward the rules-based order, often framed as serving the narrow interests of those in the amorphous West with the material power to enforce it.

The message was clear: the current geopolitical shifts may be unsettling for European states and countries like New Zealand.

However, for those in the Global South, they are simply the latest chapter in a long history of adjusting to external pressures.

India’s leading statesman, S. Jaishankar, projected an air of confidence that suggested India would meet the challenges ahead with alacrity.

Whether reality meets the rhetoric in this regard remains to be seen. As Delhi’s heft rises, so will the expectations of India to be a responsible global power. Improving relations with the world’s second-largest economy would go some way in that regard.

The group visiting the Indian Institutes of Information in Sri City, Chenai

Given the well-documented tensions in China-India relations, it was unsurprising that only one speaker represented the People’s Republic of China, and even that was not at the main convention hall but a side dialogue on the BRICS.

Yet with China looming large over discussions, a greater presence would have added a valuable perspective.

Perhaps even more concerning from a New Zealand standpoint was the notable absence of speakers from small Pacific Island states.

Considering how often the “Indo-Pacific” was referenced, this gap is something organisers might consider addressing in future editions.

For its part, New Zealand should also consider posting a defence attaché to Delhi, such is the importance of security for creating a wide-ranging ‘trade plus’ relationship with the world’s most populous country.

Elsewhere, former US General David Petraeus bemoaned the “sluggish” legacy procurement program in the US military that produces “yesterday’s technology for tomorrow’s wars.”

His panel on hybrid warfare was noteworthy for sharing the tremendous advancements in military doctrine wrought by the war in Ukraine.

Despite the busy schedule, the delegates got a chance to take in some of the local landmarks and sights

Events in Europe have made clear the importance of AI-integrated unmanned systems for modern warfare.

The concern of America’s leading strategists might give New Zealand defence officials cause for reflection before releasing the long-awaited defence capability plan.

Especially as legacy platforms like large surface vessels have been particularly vulnerable under these changes, such as how a navy-less Ukraine has sunk a third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet with the use of drones.

Innovation frequently flows from warfare, and one commentator was certain that the cessation of conflict would see Ukraine presently at the “bleeding edge” of innovation, becoming a leading weapons manufacturer in Europe.

Having previously attended Raisina in 2023, I was struck by how much the discussions have evolved.

Attendance was significantly higher, and the tenor of debates had shifted as the world grapples with the third year of the Ukraine war, the Gaza conflict and a new US Administration. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was absent this time, while Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha took the stage to present his country’s perspective.

Raisina remains a forum for forthright contestation, with explosive panels offering fascinating insights as representatives of states with divergent outlooks make their cases.

At times, this gave rise to uncomfortable moments, such as the European Union states facing strident criticism for prioritising normative arguments over pragmatic security contributions.

Despite moments of tension, what remains undeniable is that the Raisina Dialogue is a must-attend event for those interested in regional security.

India’s evolving role in global affairs and the rapid shifts occurring across the Global South, requires careful attention.

Asia is central to all these discussions, and understanding the perspectives of consequential leaders is fundamental to advancing New Zealand’s regional objectives. Whether we like it or not, these changes are happening. For New Zealand, engaging with these shifts is not an option — it’s essential.

Andrew Wilford is the Centre Manager at the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre. He holds an M.A. in International Relations and a B.A. in politics from Victoria University of Wellington. He was the recipient of the 2022 Terence O'Brien Scholarship in Strategic Studies and International Relations, the 2023 Sir Desmond Todd Memorial Prize for best MA thesis and an Asia New Zealand Foundation Research Grant in 2023. His areas of research include Chinese domestic politics, international relations, the China-India relationship, and the People's Liberation Army.